US air travel more than doubled since 1990 and has recovered past its COVID collapse
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US passengers each quarter across three and a half decades. The site's US demand models try to explain this series.
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Window: 1990 Q1 to 2025 Q4
Observed data through: 2025 Q3 (the chart extends to 2025 Q4 with nowcast values)
Vertical axis: Passengers (millions, quarterly)
Series: Passengers; 4-quarter rolling average; TSA nowcast
Latest: Passengers 288.9; 4-quarter rolling average 275
Projected to 2025 Q4: TSA nowcast 279.3
Summer is the peak quarter of US air travel in 31 of 36 years; the widest swings are 2020 and 2021
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Each row is a year and each cell one quarter's passengers against that year's average. The first quarter is the lowest in all but three of the years, and the third almost always the highest.
China: national passenger traffic (quarterly)
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Chinese air passengers have grown more than fivefold in two decades, with the COVID collapse a deep but temporary interruption.
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India: domestic passenger traffic (quarterly)
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Indian domestic air travel has roughly tripled in a decade and a half, ending the sample at its all-time peak despite the COVID collapse.
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Air passenger traffic: selected European markets (indexed, first observed quarter = 100)
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Poland's air traffic has grown more than tenfold, by far the most of these European markets, while France and Germany have grown the least. Each line starts from that country's first quarter in the data.
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Window: 2002 Q1 to 2026 Q2
Vertical axis: Index (first observed quarter = 100)
Series: Germany; France; Spain; Italy; Greece; Poland; Ireland; Norway
Latest: Germany 167.2 (2026 Q1); France 191.7 (2025 Q4); Spain 251.2 (2026 Q1); Italy 300.3 (2026 Q1); Greece 280.7 (2026 Q1); Poland 1,240 (2026 Q1); Ireland 251 (2026 Q1); Norway 256.9 (2026 Q2)
Mexico: domestic vs international (indexed, 2006 Q1 = 100)
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Mexican domestic air travel has more than tripled since the turn of the century while international more than doubled. Domestic pulled ahead in a burst before the financial crisis, and the two have grown alike since.
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Window: 2000 Q1 to 2025 Q4
Vertical axis: Index (2006 Q1 = 100)
Series: Domestic; International
Latest: Domestic 329.6; International 217
India: passenger seasonality, 2013–2019 vs 2023–2025
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Indian air travel peaks in December in both periods, and the seasonal swing is gentler than a decade ago. The quietest month has moved from February to July.
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Vertical axis: Seasonal index (100 = average month)
Series: 2013–2019; 2023–2025
The peak-to-trough range of the seasonal index averaged 25 index points in 2013 to 2017, 17 in 2018 to 2019 and 16 in 2023 to 2025. Most of the narrowing was already in place before COVID, so the gap between the two windows mostly predates the pandemic.
Airport security counts arrive about three months before the official passenger data
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TSA screening counts arrive about three months ahead of the official passenger figures and move with them at a steady ratio. The nowcast applies that ratio to the quarter still being counted and is not a demand model.
descriptive The compared series are near-identical tallies by construction, so a tight fit is expected rather than evidence of skill.
Details
Window: 2019 Q1 to 2025 Q4
Data through: 2025 Q3 (the chart extends to 2025 Q4)
Vertical axis: Passengers (millions, quarterly)
Series: BTS T-100 passengers; TSA checkpoint throughput; TSA nowcast; BTS partial (incomplete T-100)
Latest: BTS T-100 passengers 288.9 (2025 Q3); TSA checkpoint throughput 228.3 (2025 Q4)
Projected to 2025 Q4: TSA nowcast 279.3
This is a ratio bridge for nowcasting partial or missing T-100 quarters. BTS T-100 passengers are nearly the same count as TSA checkpoint throughput (BTS is about 1.21 times TSA), so the small error (1.17% mean absolute percentage error) is near-mechanical. The regression's marginal value over a naive per-quarter BTS-to-TSA ratio, whose error is 2.40%, is 1.23 percentage points. The close fit is not evidence of forecast skill.