Air freight swings far harder than the economy it rides on
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Growth in freight on all-cargo flights swings about five times wider than the economy's. This compares how much each moves; it is not an estimate of how freight responds to the economy.
descriptive A pattern in the data, not a causal estimate.
Details
Window: 1991 Q1 to 2025 Q3
Data through: 2025 Q3
Vertical axis: Year-over-year growth (%)
Series: Freight ton-miles, year-over-year change (%); GDP, year-over-year change (%)
Latest: Freight ton-miles, year-over-year change (%) -7.2; GDP, year-over-year change (%) 2.3
The freight series is ton-miles of freight and mail on all-cargo flights (aircraft with no seats). Freight carried in the holds of passenger aircraft is not in it, so the chart describes all-cargo flying and not air freight as a whole; a change in it can also reflect freight moving between all-cargo and passenger aircraft.
T-100 did not cover domestic all-cargo flying, FedEx included, before 2002 Q4.
Freight seasonality by decade
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The fourth quarter is the freight peak and the first quarter the trough in every decade shown. The series counts freight and mail on all-cargo flights only.
The economy used less air freight per dollar of GDP in 2024 than in 2003 or at its 2021 peak
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Since reporting coverage settled, freight on all-cargo flights per dollar of output has fallen below its level of two decades ago and well below its pandemic peak. Freight in passenger holds is not counted here.
Details
Window: 1990 Q1 to 2025 Q3
Data through: 2025 Q3
Vertical axis: Ton-Miles per $B GDP
Latest: 516,800
The freight series is ton-miles of freight and mail on all-cargo flights (aircraft with no seats). Freight carried in the holds of passenger aircraft is not in it, so the chart describes all-cargo flying and not air freight as a whole; a change in it can also reflect freight moving between all-cargo and passenger aircraft.
T-100 did not cover domestic all-cargo flying, FedEx included, before 2002 Q4.
China: air cargo volume by market (tonnes)
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China's air cargo has nearly tripled, with international shipments growing much faster than domestic. The domestic line steps up partway through, when Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan routes were moved into it.
Details
Window: 2006 Q2 to 2026 Q1
Vertical axis: 10,000 tonnes (quarterly)
Series: Total; International; Domestic
Latest: Total 245.2; International 110.5; Domestic 134.7
Volume is cargo and mail combined, not freight alone.
Brazil: air freight (indexed)
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Brazilian air freight has more than doubled since the turn of the century, ending close to its all-time peak.
Details
Window: 2000 Q1 to 2025 Q3
Data through: 2025 Q3
Vertical axis: Index (first quarter = 100)
Series: Freight (indexed)
Latest: 230.1