The income model and the hub trend put 10-market traffic near 4.1 billion by 2044
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The ten markets combined over the coming two decades, as the sum of the income model's projections and Singapore's time trend. Supply-side and network growth are left out, so this is not a full forecast.
projection Income-only central projection from income per person and population; supply-side expansion, network formation and low-cost entry are not modelled.
The US stays the biggest single air-travel market through 2044; India grows fastest
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Of the ten markets covered, India's projected passengers more than double over the coming two decades, far more than any other's. The United States stays the largest, though each market counts passengers its own way.
projection Income-only central projection from income per person and population; supply-side expansion, network formation and low-cost entry are not modelled.
Details
Window: 2025 to 2044
Vertical axis: Passengers a year
Series: United States; Australia; Canada; Brazil; United Kingdom; Singapore; Japan; Mexico; India; China
Projected to 2044: United States 1,338,000,000; Australia 123,600,000; Canada 138,500,000; Brazil 187,200,000; United Kingdom 320,500,000; Singapore 72,920,000; Japan 139,500,000; Mexico 197,900,000; India 668,800,000; China 904,300,000
The chart counts passengers a year, not passenger-kilometres. It covers 10 markets, which together are not world traffic. A trip between two covered markets is counted in both, so totals are sums of national counts. Singapore counts transit passengers, and India's international count was Indian airlines only before 2015.
The income model leaves out supply-side, network and low-cost-carrier growth. In all 3 markets whose ladder result counts passengers, the fitted curve's median income elasticity (0.4 to 1.2) is below the ladder value, and most of each gap is already there in 2024. China, whose ladder result is inconclusive, is not counted.
Re-run with actual income, on the curve fitted to all years, the method projected less traffic than was flown in most or all windows of 5 years or more ending by 2019 in each of the 7 markets checked; 2 more have a series too short for it. In those re-runs the band of the United States held the outcome in every window and the other markets' bands in 55% of 5-year windows, 25% of 10-year and none of 15-year, with nearly every miss above the band.
Two refit tests set the method against holding trips per person flat: it did no better one year ahead and was closer several years ahead in most markets. The second, on data to 2014, was 4% to 28% low in 2019 in all 7 markets tested and from 35% low to 9% high in 2024. A third, across the pandemic, starts from a predicted level, so its error counts the curve's gap to the data and across markets is several times the other two. Neither refit passed the project's own sampling screen, so their figures are less firm than the projection's. These tests reach 10 years at most; the projection runs 20.
The projection uses passenger data through 2024 and the IMF's October 2025 growth forecast, which runs to 2030. Later observations exist for some markets and are not used. Income growth per person is IMF real GDP growth minus UN medium-variant population growth. The IMF path embeds its own population projection; the two differ most for Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom. Each market's international share of traffic is held inside its historical range. Short-history markets borrow their curve's shape from the others.
US flying grows slowly on income alone: about 1.34 billion passengers by 2044
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This central projection counts only income and population growth and leaves out new routes, cheaper fares and airline expansion.
projection Income-only central projection from income per person and population; supply-side expansion, network formation and low-cost entry are not modelled.
In the 3 markets that can be compared, the projection implies flying responds less to income than the estimate from each market's past, and elasticity runs 0.5 to 1.7 lower
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The income sensitivity the projection implies sits below the historical estimate in each market that can be compared. Most of that gap is already there in the first year, before income rises any further.
projection Income-only central projection from income per person and population; supply-side expansion, network formation and low-cost entry are not modelled.