The income sensitivity the projection implies sits below the historical estimate in each market that can be compared. Most of that gap is already there in the first year, before income rises any further.
Conditions and method
Status: projection (income-only central projection from income per person and population; supply-side expansion, network formation and low-cost entry are not modelled).
In all 3 like-for-like markets most of the gap is already there in 2024: the fitted curve’s elasticity that year sits 0.3 to 1.5 below the ladder value. The other 0.1 to 0.2 opens between 2024 and the median over the horizon, as the curve flattens with income and because that median is taken on the projection’s population growth where the 2024 column uses history’s. The projection leaves out supply-side, network and low-cost-carrier growth, and the ladder’s estimates from each market’s history do not separate those from income, so the two are not expected to agree.
The 3 markets the title counts, the like-for-like markets, are Australia, Brazil and the United States: each has a long-run ladder result measured on passengers, and the forward elasticity is below it. China is shown but not counted, because its ladder result is inconclusive. Canada, India, Japan, Mexico and the United Kingdom are not counted either, because they have no ladder reference.
Singapore is on the long-run ladder but not in this table: the projection treats it as a hub and extends a time trend in trips per resident with no income term, so it has no forward income elasticity to set against its ladder value.
The projection uses passenger data through 2024 and the IMF’s October 2025 growth forecast, which runs to 2030. Later observations exist for some markets and are not used.