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GDP helps predict air traffic in 10 of 19 markets and air traffic helps predict GDP in 5 markets

Cross-market
Cross-market
GDP helps predict air traffic in 10 of 19 markets and air traffic helps predict GDP in 5 markets
The split is GDP only in 7 markets, air traffic only in 2 markets, both in 3 markets and neither in 7 markets. Each market has its own test at the 5% level, unadjusted for the number of tests, and consumer prices, fares and oil are left out
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Past income helps predict air travel in more markets than air travel helps predict income, and in many markets neither helps predict the other. These are tests of prediction only.

What this shows: The vertical axis shows Number of markets.

Conditions and method

Status: provisional (estimated in a small bivariate system; omitted macro drivers could alter the result).

Each market is placed by one test at one lag, and a direction counts when that test is significant at the uncorrected 5% level. The United States is counted under ‘Neither’ here. Its own chart, which tests every lag and uses a stricter test, reads GDP as helping to predict US air traffic.

How these numbers are made

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