SARIMAX follows the fall late: its lowest forecast comes two quarters after the actual trough. The other models dip later still or not at all.
What this shows: The chart covers 2019 Q1 to 2025 Q3. It plots Actual, ElasticNet, LightGBM, Neural Ensemble, NeuralProphet, SARIMAX and XGBoost on a vertical axis of log(passengers). Latest values: Actual 19.48; ElasticNet 19.58; LightGBM 19.32; Neural Ensemble 19.58; NeuralProphet 19.54; SARIMAX 19.56; XGBoost 19.26. Data run through 2025 Q3.
Conditions and method
Status: descriptive (forecast protocols differ across models, so the figures are comparable within a model and not across models).
The title measures each model by the share of the fall in actual log passengers from 2019 Q4 to 2020 Q2 that its 2020 Q2 forecast captured. ‘Saw it coming’ means at least one half, and ‘almost none’ means under one tenth.