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Australia's elasticity does not depend on any one crisis control; Brazil's and Singapore's do

Cross-market
Cross-market
Australia's elasticity does not depend on any one crisis control; Brazil's and Singapore's do
Without the control for the 2020 Q2 COVID trough, Brazil fails the bounds test (its statistic falls from 63.21 to 2.65) and Singapore's elasticity moves from 0.871 to 1.029, outside its published interval.
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Australia, Brazil and Singapore still pass the bounds test and stay inside their published intervals when any control but the pandemic-trough one is dropped. Without that one, Canada's off-ladder estimate roughly halves.

Conditions and method

Status: exploratory.

Each market’s model outside the United States is refitted with one event control dropped at a time; the seasonal terms are always kept. The chart shows the long-run GDP elasticity and the bounds statistic under each drop.

The United States row is not refitted here: the range of its other specifications is on the ladder chart.

India and the United Kingdom fail the bounds test in this refit, so the chart treats their long-run elasticities as not meaningful: the rows for them show how the number moves, not a figure to quote. Canada passes the bounds test but is off the ranked ladder because its two traffic series disagree, so its rows are a diagnostic only.

How these numbers are made

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